Monday, November 4, 2013

Election 2013 Predictions (November 4, 2013)

There are three major elections tomorrow and none of them are terribly difficult to predict, but here are my forecasts, for the record:

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe, one of the most unpopular people in the state of Virginia, will beat the even less beloved Republican candidate Ken Cuccinelli by 6 points, 51% to 45% (with the Liberal candidate drawing the other 4%).  The media is trying to portray this as a bit of a referendum on Hillary Clinton, since she or Bill Clinton have headlined 10 separate events for McAuliffe, their former top money man.  I'm not sure of that angle, but I do think Cuccinelli is so despised McAuliffe should sail home.
UPDATE:  McAuliffe actually won 48-45-7.  (Off by 3)

If McAuliffe sails to a win, what adjective to use for Chris Christie's victory?  He will certainly crush Democratic challenger Barbara Buono in New Jersey and continue as New Jersey's Governor, while burnishing his credentials as a broadly popular Republican who can, say, carry the nation in 2016 (though I bet he cannot carry Iowa!).  I see Christie winning 62% to 38%.
UPDATE:  Christie actually won 60-38-2.  (Off by 2)

But the biggest win of all will go to Democrat Bill deBlasio in his quest to become New York City mayor.  He will chew up Republican Joe Lhota by an even 40 points, 68% to 28%.
UPDATE:  de Blasio actually won 73-24-3.  (Off by 5)

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