The media
and the country, except for the extreme elements, appear to have moved on from
the “trifecta” of issues that appeared so damaging to Obama and the Democrats
last month – the VA hospital scandal, the Bowe Bergdahl hostage exchange and
Obama’s courageous executive order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. New news has replaced them in the cycle, and
neither party has benefited from the controversies that have emerged in their
wake.
Hardly was
the proverbial ink dry on the Bergdahl case when Iraq began to crumble anew,
due to rapid gains made by the strikingly named ISIS group (for “Islamic State
of Iraq and Syria” although other similar acronyms abound). ISIS overran the western portion of Iraq , essentially eliminating the Syrian border,
though their drive has either stalled (or is retooling) short of Baghdad . Obama suffers, of course, because his
withdrawal of U.S.
troops two and a half years ago was made with the assessment that Iraqi forces
were sufficient to maintain order.


The
net/net? Republicans felt the sting of
the ouster of their Leader. Both parties
lose any chance at immigration reform, which Brat ran on exclusively as a
candidate. And Democrats did not get the
benefits of any unelectable crazy right-wing candidates emerging in their tough
Senate battles, unlike 2010 when the GOP threw away good chances to unseat
Democrats in Delaware, Indiana, Nevada and Missouri (remember Christine “I Am
Not a Witch” O’Connell, Richard “Rapist’s Gift of God” Mourdock, Sharron “Far
Right” Angle and Todd “Legitimate Rape” Akin?).
The only upside of the Cantor defeat, modest indeed, was the swift
election of Californian Kevin McCarthy as the new GOP House Leader, who is
certainly more moderate then Cantor.


ECONOMETER
The
Econometer continues to climb, now at + 59, meaning, key economic measures are
substantially better than they were on Election Day 2012 when Mitt Romney last
promised that the economy could only improve if he was elected. The latest rise was due to the strength of
that job report, growing consumer confidence and a surging stock market. Why does the economy no longer matter in
elections? Or will it return when things
get serious after the aptly-named unofficial kickoff to the election
season…Labor Day?
Econometer
|
Election Day 2012
|
6-Apr
|
4-May
|
8-Jun
|
6-Jul
|
Econometer
|
0.0
|
53.3
|
52.5
|
56.0
|
59.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unemployment Rate
|
7.9
|
6.7
|
6.3
|
6.3
|
6.1
|
Consumer Confidence
|
73.1
|
83.9
|
82.3
|
84.8
|
85.2
|
Price of Gas
|
3.71
|
3.62
|
3.74
|
3.75
|
3.77
|
Dow Jones
|
13,330
|
16,339
|
16,308
|
16,617
|
16,882
|
GDP
|
3.1
|
2.6
|
0.1
|
-1.0
|
-2.9
|
PRESIDENT
OBAMA APPROVAL RATING
The
cumulative effect of Bergdahl, the VA and ISIS finally caught up to Obama, and
after months of steady progress to rebuild his approval ratings to the
mid-forties, they took a dip (as predicted last month). Nothing too staggering, a couple of points,
but the margin of error is very small and these numbers will ultimately have a
huge impact on Election Day.
Obama
Approval Rating
|
Election Day 2012
|
6-Apr
|
4-May
|
8-Jun
|
6-Jul
|
Approve
|
49.6
|
44.2
|
44.5
|
45.6
|
43.6
|
Disapprove
|
47.4
|
51.9
|
51.4
|
50.5
|
52.2
|
Net
|
2.2
|
-7.7
|
-6.9
|
-4.9
|
-8.6
|
GENERIC
BALLOT
On the
other hand, the Democrats are building a small but significant lead in the
generic Congressional ballot, and now have their biggest lead in months, albeit
only two points.
Generic
Ballot
|
Election Day 2012
|
6-Apr
|
4-May
|
8-Jun
|
6-Jul
|
Democrat
|
46.3
|
41.0
|
38.0
|
42.2
|
41.0
|
Republican
|
46.0
|
39.4
|
40.0
|
41.5
|
39.1
|
Net
|
0.3
|
1.6
|
-2.0
|
0.7
|
1.9
|
OBAMACARE
Obamacare
appears to have stabilized in a negative zone for the Democrats, and the only
thing that could shake that positively (perhaps) is good news on renewal prices
for 2015 plans, which should be announced starting this summer.
Obamacare
|
Election Day 2012
|
6-Apr
|
4-May
|
8-Jun
|
6-Jul
|
For/Favor
|
40.0
|
39.8
|
41.0
|
40.1
|
41.2
|
Oppose/Against
|
50.8
|
52.0
|
50.0
|
51.7
|
53.8
|
Net
|
-10.8
|
-12.2
|
-9.0
|
-11.6
|
-12.6
|
2016
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES
Hillary
Clinton continues to hold a huge lead over Joe Biden, with all awaiting a 2015
announcement.
|
2013
|
2013
|
2014
|
2014
|
|
Jan-Oct
|
Nov/Dec
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
|
59
|
67
|
67
|
69
|
Biden
|
13
|
11
|
10
|
13
|
|
6
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
Cuomo
|
4
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
O'Malley
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
Schweitzer
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
A/O or N/A
|
24
|
25
|
20
|
2016
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES
The
Republicans continue to jockey among a nine-person field (and more in the
wings). Rand Paul, Jeb Bush and Mike
Huckabee head the field but none of the crew is out of range at this stage.
|
2013
|
2013
|
2014
|
2014
|
|
Jan-Oct
|
Nov/Dec
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Paul
|
13
|
14
|
12
|
14
|
Bush
|
12
|
10
|
12
|
13
|
Huckabee
|
13
|
13
|
14
|
12
|
Christie
|
16
|
19
|
12
|
11
|
Ryan
|
14
|
11
|
11
|
11
|
Cruz
|
10
|
12
|
8
|
7
|
Rubio
|
14
|
9
|
8
|
7
|
|
3
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
Perry
|
0
|
0
|
6
|
5
|
Santorum
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
Jindal
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
Other/N.A.
|
2
|
5
|
9
|
12
|
I was just in the elevator with Chris Matthews, Gwen Ifill, and Stephen Colbert.
ReplyDelete"Thank God Obambeter is back," said Matthews. "Now I know what's going on." Ifill and Colbert nodded.
Me? The Middle East tragedy just won't stop. Goes back the Britain, France, the US always there somewhere, T.E. Lawrence, and Gertrude Bell. Lawrence and Bell? They said the region is tribal. Western political boundaries are artificial. Leave these people to govern their own region.
Wick Sloane
I think the Kurds may be taking the bull by the horns and initiating part of the Joe Biden partition plan (at least in northern Iraq). Who knew they were such ardent followers of Joe's advice?
ReplyDelete