Now
that we are into the 2016 primary/caucus season, no more “monthly updates,”…
BTRTN will be posting at a feverish pitch, matching or exceeding the pace of
the primary/caucus schedule.

A QUICK PRIMARY PRIMER
Here is the primary/caucus schedule through Super Tuesday on
March 1, what I would call “Phase I” of the season. After Super Tuesday we should know whether
any candidate in either party has delivered a knockout blow or, conversely, we
are in for a long slog. And we should also
have a pretty good sense of whether Michael Bloomberg is going to enter the
race as an Independent. But more on that
later.
Date
|
State
|
Party
|
Primary/Caucus
|
Primary Type
|
February 1
|
Iowa
|
Both
|
Caucus
|
Closed
|
February 9
|
New Hampshire
|
Both
|
Primary
|
Mixed
|
February 20
|
Nevada
|
Democratic
|
Caucus
|
Closed
|
February 20
|
South Carolina
|
Republican
|
Primary
|
Open
|
February 23
|
Nevada
|
Republican
|
Caucus
|
Closed
|
February 27
|
South Carolina
|
Democratic
|
Primary
|
Open
|
March 1
|
Alabama
|
Both
|
Primary
|
Open
|
March 1
|
Alaska
|
Republican
|
Caucus
|
Closed
|
March 1
|
American Samoa
|
Democratic
|
Caucus
|
Open
|
March 1
|
Arkansas
|
Both
|
Primary
|
Open
|
March 1
|
Colorado
|
Both
|
Caucus
|
Closed
|
March 1
|
Georgia
|
Both
|
Primary
|
Open
|
March 1
|
Massachusetts
|
Both
|
Primary
|
Mixed
|
March 1
|
Minnesota
|
Both
|
Caucus
|
Open
|
March 1
|
North Dakota
|
Republican
|
Caucus
|
Closed
|
March 1
|
Oklahoma
|
Both
|
Primary
|
Closed
|
March 1
|
Tennessee
|
Both
|
Primary
|
Open
|
March 1
|
Texas
|
Both
|
Primary
|
Open
|
March 1
|
Vermont
|
Both
|
Primary
|
Open
|
March 1
|
Virginia
|
Both
|
Primary
|
Open
|
March 1
|
Wyoming
|
Republican
|
Caucus
|
Closed
|
Let’s get to Iowa now.
THE GOP
Let’s review the stakes.
If Donald Trump wins Iowa, he has a superb chance of winning the GOP nomination,
full stop. He is leading in New
Hampshire handily, 31% to 12%-13% for Marco Rubio, John Kasich and Ted Cruz. Trump has led in every single New Hampshire
poll since mid-July -- that would be 42 straight polls. Barring an unlikely and abrupt about-face,
Trump is a sure thing in New Hampshire.
To give some perspective, no GOP candidate has EVER swept
both Iowa and New Hampshire, apart from incumbents. It’s never been done! You could cede the nomination to Trump based
on that alone, if he pulls it off.
Trump is also strong where the action moves next in “Phase
1”, largely to the South and the West.
In South Carolina, next up after New Hampshire, Trump is up 32% to 18%
over Cruz in the one recent poll. After
that, Nevada – Trump was ahead in the last poll there (in December), 33% to 20%
over Cruz. That would take us to Super
Tuesday on March 1, with its heavy southern bent (hence the nickname, “SEC Tuesday”
after college football’s Southeastern Conference whose states are
well-represented in primaries that day).
Trump appears to be strong in the polls there as well. Wins in Iowa and New Hampshire would only
accentuate Trump’s momentum and build his lead there. It would pretty much be over.
What could stop him?
Realistically, two paths. The
first is for Cruz to come back and win in Iowa.
Let’s look at the numbers:
IOWA
|
Dec '15
|
Jan 1-12
|
Jan 13-21
|
Trump
|
27
|
27
|
31
|
Cruz
|
28
|
27
|
25
|
Rubio
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
Carson
|
11
|
9
|
8
|
Bush
|
5
|
4
|
5
|
Christie
|
2
|
4
|
3
|
Paul
|
3
|
4
|
3
|
Huckabee
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
Kasich
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
Fiorina
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
Santorum
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
Other/NA
|
4
|
3
|
2
|

After months of playing nice, Trump and Cruz
are trading heavy blows, but Trump, with his birther issue and his spirited
defense of New York City, seems to be winning that battle. Who would have ever thought that the
soundtrack for his Iowa run would include “Born in the USA” (literally, he’s
been pulling a Reagan and playing that song at his rallies to echo the Cruz birther
issue) and “New York, New York” (figuratively).
Cruz thought he was playing his “Trump Card” when he assailed Trump for
having “New York values,” but Trump proved to be a more than effective counterpuncher with a
passionate defense of the city in the face of the 9/11 attacks.
If Cruz wins in Iowa, it opens up an ongoing mano-a-mano
between him and Trump down the primary path, and also opens up room for the
mainstream candidates.
If Cruz does not beat Trump in Iowa, I can’t see Cruz
overtaking him anywhere else. So the
second path? That would be the
mainstream wing of the GOP making its last stand. And the man leading that charge could be John
Kasich. His numbers are on the rise in
New Hampshire, where a “sub-race” is underway within the overall primary, among
the mainstream candidates Kasich, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie and Jeb Bush. Here’s a look at recent polling in New
Hampshire.
NH
|
Dec '15
|
Jan 1-21
|
Trump
|
26
|
31
|
Rubio
|
13
|
13
|
Cruz
|
11
|
12
|
Kasich
|
8
|
12
|
Christie
|
10
|
8
|
Bush
|
7
|
8
|
Fiorina
|
4
|
4
|
Paul
|
4
|
4
|
Carson
|
6
|
3
|
Huckabee
|
1
|
1
|
Other/NA
|
10
|
4
|
In January thus far, Trump’s formidable lead has only
expanded, and Cruz is in the mix, but what the GOP Establishment is pointing to
is that 41% of the voters are for one of those four mainstream candidates.. And the one drawing the most recent attention
is Kasich, who has made headway in January (up four points versus December) and
is basically tied with Rubio, and ahead of Christie and Bush.

THE DEMOCRATS
Of course the Democrats have a two-person field (sorry,
Martin O’Malley), Hillary Clinton versus wildly surprising Bernie Sanders. Here is a summary of the most recent Iowa
polls:
IOWA
|
Dec '15
|
Jan 1-21
|
Clinton
|
52
|
48
|
Sanders
|
36
|
42
|
O'Malley
|
6
|
5
|
Other/NA
|
6
|
5
|
There have been 11 polls in January, and Clinton has led in
seven, and, as the chart shows, is on average up by four points. The polls have been all over the map. For instance, there have been five new polls
in the last week, and the margins (Clinton versus Sanders) have been +29, +9,
-8, +9 and -1. While the race is certainly
tightening up (Clinton had a 16-point lead in December), Hillary maintains a statistically
significant lead.

And if Sanders wins Iowa?
He would surely win New Hampshire, thus following the path of Jimmy
Carter in 1980 and John Kerry in 2004 in sweeping both of the initial two
contests. But that would hardly settle
it. Hillary’s strength in the South,
particularly among African-Americans, will be very hard to turn, and I doubt
Sanders can win there, much less knock her out with a boffo Super Tuesday.
But even if Sanders is solidly ahead after Super Tuesday,
the plot thickens.
THE WILD CARD
The blogosphere was lighting up Saturday night as snowbound
political junkies began tweeting and emailing the New York Times story that
Michael Bloomberg was indeed exploring the possibility of an independent run at
the Presidency. Bloomberg had long said
that he had no interest in running unless he had a realistic chance of winning,
and with the Trump/Cruz and Sanders strength, such a path was suddenly at least
possible.

Bloomberg must declare in early March if he wants to be on
the ballot in all 50 states. He will
almost surely wait to see where the dust settles on Super Tuesday before making
an announcement. And if Hillary is weak
and Trump/Cruz are strong, he will likely jump in.
I eagerly await the three-way polls to see from which party
he draws his support. Stay tuned!
Interesting.
ReplyDeleteI see Trump and Cruz battling it out and Hillary taking Iowa while Sanders takes New Hampshire.
I think Cruz will snag Iowa and Trump New Hampshire, and then there will be blood.