Here are Tom’s official BTRTN’s predictions (not a snapshot!)….but he reserves the right to come back tomorrow at 5 PM ET if the final flurry of polls released tomorrow morning reveal any material shifts. (We have now looked at today's -- Tuesday's -- polls and will make no changes.)
It takes an awful lot of chutzpah for anyone to
make predictions about the 2020 elections.
After all, we were among those who got it wrong in 2016 (ugh).
And, the 2020 races are chock full of “toss ups,” in which we make calls with
one hand on a calculator and the other on a Ouija board. There’s also the matter of Donald Trump, who has
a terrible tendency to render precedents somewhat moot (remember the “Blue Wall”?). And most of all, we live in the age of
COVID-19, where norms have been shattered, turning the election process
underway in the United States on its head.
Remarkably, over 97 million Americans have already voted, 62 million of
them by mail, presaging record turnout, with difficult to ascertain
implications.
But indeed we do have
an awful lot of chutzpah, because our
predictions follow below. We will
forecast the winner of each and every one of the 56 states and districts that
have distinct Electoral College votes for the presidency, and all 35 Senate, 435
House and 11 gubernatorial races – 537 separate races in total. First we’ll summarize the headlines, where we
came out on those crucial swing state races, how many seats will flip in the
House, and then follow with charts that devote a single line to each of those 537
races.
(And if you prefer to watch these predictions unfold in video format, it is up on YouTube right now: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EAfg8cV_b_0 .)
Why should you listen to us? We admit we missed the boat in 2016; we were among the many who predicted, with historic inaccuracy, that Hillary Clinton would win. It’s hard to put that aside. But apart from that, when a small set of
crucial states went the wrong way, we have a pretty good track record.
Year |
Total Elections |
House Gains |
|||
Total
Races |
#
Correct |
%
Correct |
BTRTN Prediction |
Actual Outcome |
|
2008 |
91 |
89 |
98% |
n/a |
n/a |
2010 |
471 |
453 |
96% |
R + 58 |
R + 63 |
2012 |
524 |
502 |
96% |
D + 4 |
D + 8 |
2014 |
507 |
488 |
96% |
R + 10 |
R + 13 |
2016 |
537 |
519 |
97% |
D + 5 |
D + 6 |
2017 |
8 |
6 |
75% |
n/a |
n/a |
2018 |
506 |
484 |
96% |
D +
38 |
D +
41 |
Total |
2644 |
2541 |
96% |
n/a |
n/a |
We started by getting every Senate race right in the 2008 elections and all but two states in the Obama-McCain presidential race. Out of more than 2,500 elections since then (now including all presidential, House, Senate and gubernatorial races), we've been right 96% of the time. And we’ve been nearly spot on in forecasting gains and losses in the House. Sure, many of these races have not been terribly competitive; but a bunch have, and we hold our record up against those of our more famous (and for profit) brethren.
One note: if any reader wants our handy, dandy
semi-famous spreadsheets that allow you to easily track Election Night (and beyond)
outcomes for each of the presidential, Senate, House and Governor races (and
see how we are doing against our predictions), just email us and we will send
them along to you: borntorunthenumbers@gmail.com.
On to our fearless predictions…
THE ODDS
First, our final “odds” which
lead to the predictions. These odds are
derived from our various BTRTN simulation models, which in turn are fed polling
information and massaged based on other factors, including resources, history,
trends and judgment.
BTRTN ELECTION DASHBOARD |
|||
BTRTN Election Odds of Democrats' Winning/Controlling |
|||
President |
Senate |
House |
Governors |
88% |
71% |
99% |
n/a |
351 Biden/187 Trump |
50 DEM/48 GOP (D + 3, 2 runoffs) |
251 DEM/184 GOP (D + 18) |
GOP 27/DEM 23 (GOP + 1) |
THE PREDICTIONS
And here is the answer: the Democrats will
win the trifecta, emerging from this election with control of each of the White
House, Senate and House.
· Joe Biden will become our 46th President by a comfortable margin, earning 351 electoral votes to 187 for Donald Trump. Trump will become the first incumbent to be defeated in his bid for reelection in 28 years, since Bill Clinton beat George H.W. Bush in 1992.
· Biden will have a Democratic Senate to work with, as the Democrats squeak out a 50-seat majority, with Vice President Kamala Harris presiding over her former colleagues and able to break ties with a deciding vote as needed. But there will be two run-off elections in January that will each be very close.
· Not surprisingly, the Democrats will maintain control of the House of Representatives, adding 18 seats to extend their impressive majority to an overwhelming one, 251 to 184.
· The GOP will only be able to point to one consolation prize; they will win the only state house that flips in this election, thereby increasing their Governor majority to 27 to 23.
We make no particular
statement at this point about when Biden
will actually be declared the winner, or what Trump will do when confronted by a call by the AP and the networks. There is some possibility that Biden will be
declared the winner in the wee hours of Election Night because, by our
calculations, he does not need the “slow counting” states to win. But it is entirely possible, and more likely,
that things will drag on because even some of the “faster counting” states will
be very closely contested.
We are also not going to do
any analysis of what the “red mirage” might look like – the very real notion
that Trump will lead in the early Election Night results because more GOP
voters are voting in person, votes that will be counted first. Suffice to say, that red mirage will likely
happen; it is common for many close races to follow that pattern, since largely
Democratic cities take longer to count that rural red areas. The in-person effect will enhance that
tendency even further. Be prepared and don’t
panic.
THE PRESIDENCY
Joe Biden will win not only because he flips the Big Three – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – but several other “toss up” states as well, including another big one, Florida.
Biden enters Election Day with
a strong base of 20 “Solid Blue” states, comprising 216 electoral votes. Add to that a Biden win in Minnesota, a state
that Hillary Clinton won, and that Trump has contested and will make reasonably
close, which will bring Biden to 226.
Biden had led in the polling
by a substantial margin in Michigan for some time, putting it almost out of
reach. More recently, Wisconsin,
doubtless driven by an epic COVID-19 surge, has also see Biden expand his
lead. Biden has leads in both Michigan
and Wisconsin by about +8 points. He
will win both, although neither very quickly…Wisconsin does not begin counting
mail-in ballots until Election Day itself, while Michigan does not count until
the day before Election Day.
Pennsylvania has been Trump’s
true focus. There was really only one
path for him to defeat Biden: win every
toss up state – Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas – and, assuming he performed that
miracle (since he trailed nominally in most of them), then win Pennsylvania. But
the polls have largely been in Biden’s favor in Pennsylvania despite the onslaught of Trump rallies. Of the33 polls conducted
since October 1 in Pennsylvania, Biden has led in of 31 of them, with one tie and
one Trump lead (of only +2 points); on average Biden has led by +5 points.
That is all Biden needs to
win – adding the Big Three’s 46 electoral votes to the 226 he had, gets him to 272.
We also predict Biden will
take Nevada and Maine’s 2nd district, both of which had been leaning
to Biden).
That leaves the seven swing
states, and they were exceedingly difficult to predict. We see them breaking as follows: Biden taking Arizona, Florida, North Carolina
and Georgia, and Trump taking Texas, Ohio and Iowa. These seven states amount to a whopping 133
electoral votes. That means that if
Biden took all of them, he would have pulled off a true landslide, with 413
electoral votes to Trump’s 125. But if
Trump swept them, Biden would have achieved only a narrow victory, 280 – 258.
And that is the true range of
possible outcomes we have before us. If
Biden wins a landslide, it would completely undercut Trump’s potential
challenges. But if Biden wins by the
narrower margin, then we will see Trump in court contesting Pennsylvania, which has
20 electoral votes, enough to flip the election.
And we should grant at least
the small possibility (which we have pegged at 12% odds) that Trump could win. His only path is to sweep the toss-ups and take Pennsylvania, all of which is
exceedingly unlikely.
The one we truly agonized over
is Florida. We are awaiting any new
polls that might shed some late-breaking insight. Biden is leading very slightly in the polls
(+2), but history has taught us (2016 presidential race, 2018 governor and
Senate) that Florida Democratic polling leads on Election Day do not translate
into Democratic wins, but rather heartbreaking losses. But there have been three very reputable polls
in the final days that each has Biden at +5 or +6. The polls that have it even are mostly notoriously GOP-biased (though even Rasmussen has Biden up by one point).
If Trump loses Florida, it is all over, and Florida, a fast-counting state,
could be called on Election Night in the wee hours.
This chart summarizes every
state (and district), and we have sorted them in the rough order that we think
the outcome will be known. This is an
exceedingly difficult exercise, but might be helpful in guiding you through the
evening, the overnight and, quite possibly, over the days and even weeks beyond
that.
We have tried to sort the races in some rough order of when they
will be "called," obviously an even more difficult task this year
given the mail-in balloting. We take
into account the time the polls close, how early the states started to count
mail-in ballots, and the expected win/loss margin. |
BTRTN PREDICTION |
|||||||
Biden |
Trump |
|||||||
|
2020 Electoral Votes |
Swing State Poll Avg |
BTRTN Ratings |
Polls Close (ET) |
Vote Count Speed |
351 |
187 |
|
Vermont |
3 |
|
D Solid |
7:00 |
Fast |
3 |
|
|
Kentucky |
8 |
|
R Solid |
6/7 |
Fast |
|
8 |
|
Virginia |
13 |
|
D Solid |
7:00 |
Fast |
13 |
|
|
Indiana |
11 |
|
R Solid |
6/7 |
Fast |
|
11 |
|
West Virginia |
5 |
|
R Solid |
7:30 |
Fast |
|
5 |
|
DC |
3 |
|
D Solid |
8:00 |
Fast |
3 |
|
|
Massachusetts |
11 |
|
D Solid |
8:00 |
Fast |
11 |
|
|
Maryland |
10 |
|
D Solid |
8:00 |
Fast |
10 |
|
|
Illinois |
20 |
|
D Solid |
8:00 |
Fast |
20 |
|
|
Rhode Island |
4 |
|
D Solid |
8:00 |
Fast |
4 |
|
|
Maine 1st |
1 |
|
D Solid |
8:00 |
Fast |
1 |
|
|
Connecticut |
7 |
|
D Solid |
8:00 |
Fast |
7 |
|
|
New Jersey |
14 |
|
D Solid |
8:00 |
Fast |
14 |
|
|
Delaware |
3 |
|
D Solid |
8:00 |
Fast |
3 |
|
|
Tennessee |
11 |
|
R Solid |
8:00 |
Fast |
|
11 |
|
Maine |
2 |
|
D Solid |
8:00 |
Fast |
2 |
|
|
New Hampshire |
4 |
|
D Solid |
8:00 |
Fast |
4 |
|
|
South Carolina |
9 |
|
R Solid |
7:00 |
Fast |
|
9 |
|
Montana |
3 |
|
R Solid |
10:00 |
Fast |
|
3 |
|
Kansas |
6 |
|
R Solid |
8/9 |
Fast |
|
6 |
|
Nebraska 1st |
1 |
|
R Solid |
9:00 |
Fast |
|
1 |
|
Nebraska 3rd |
1 |
|
R Solid |
9:00 |
Fast |
|
1 |
|
Nebraska |
2 |
|
R Solid |
9:00 |
Fast |
|
2 |
|
Arkansas |
6 |
|
R Solid |
8:30 |
Fast |
|
6 |
|
South Dakota |
3 |
|
R Solid |
8/9 |
Fast |
|
3 |
|
Idaho |
4 |
|
R Solid |
10:00 |
Fast |
|
4 |
|
New York |
29 |
|
D Solid |
9:00 |
Fast |
29 |
|
|
Oklahoma |
7 |
|
R Solid |
8:00 |
Med |
|
7 |
|
Hawaii |
4 |
|
D Solid |
12:00 |
Fast |
4 |
|
|
California |
55 |
|
D Solid |
11:00 |
Fast |
55 |
|
|
Washington |
12 |
|
D Solid |
11:00 |
Fast |
12 |
|
|
Oregon |
7 |
|
D Solid |
10/11 |
Fast |
7 |
|
|
New Mexico |
5 |
|
D Solid |
9:00 |
Fast |
5 |
|
|
Colorado |
9 |
|
D Solid |
9:00 |
Fast |
9 |
|
|
Missouri |
10 |
|
R Solid |
8:00 |
Med |
|
10 |
|
Wyoming |
3 |
|
R Solid |
9:00 |
Med |
|
3 |
|
Utah |
6 |
|
R Solid |
10:00 |
Fast |
|
6 |
|
Alabama |
9 |
|
R Solid |
8:00 |
Slow |
|
9 |
|
Minnesota |
10 |
Biden + 7 |
D Likely |
9:00 |
Fast |
10 |
|
|
Maine 2nd |
1 |
Biden + 4 |
D Lean |
8:00 |
Fast |
1 |
|
|
Alaska |
3 |
|
R Solid |
12/1 |
Fast |
|
3 |
|
North Dakota |
3 |
|
R Solid |
8/9 |
Slow |
|
3 |
|
Mississippi |
6 |
|
R Solid |
8:00 |
Slow |
|
6 |
|
Louisiana |
8 |
|
R Solid |
9:00 |
Slow |
|
8 |
|
Nebraska 2nd |
1 |
Biden + 4 |
D Lean |
9:00 |
Med |
1 |
|
|
Arizona |
11 |
Biden + 3 |
D TU |
9:00 |
Med |
11 |
|
|
Florida |
29 |
Biden + 2 |
D TU |
7/8 |
Med |
29 |
|
|
North Carolina |
15 |
Biden + 2 |
D TU |
7:30 |
Med |
15 |
|
|
Ohio |
18 |
Even |
R TU |
7:30 |
Med |
|
18 |
|
Texas |
38 |
Trump + 3 |
R TU |
8/9 |
Med |
|
38 |
|
Georgia |
16 |
Biden + 1 |
D TU |
7:00 |
Med |
16 |
|
|
Iowa |
6 |
Trump + 1 |
R TU |
10:00 |
Med |
|
6 |
|
Wisconsin |
10 |
Biden + 8 |
D Likely |
9:00 |
Slow |
10 |
|
|
Michigan |
16 |
Biden + 8 |
D Likely |
8/9 |
Slow |
16 |
|
|
Nevada |
6 |
Biden + 3 |
D Lean |
10:00 |
Slow |
6 |
|
|
Pennsylvania |
20 |
Biden + 5 |
D Lean |
8:00 |
Slow |
20 |
|
THE SENATE
The Democrats needed to flip a net +3 seats to reach the 50
required to take control of the Senate, assuming a Biden win. Their hold on the Alabama seat has always
been tenuous, and we indeed predict Doug Jones will lose that seat to Tommy
Tuberville, and so they need to flip four GOP seats. (That assumes they defend the two other
Democratic seats that have been true contests, in Michigan and Minnesota – and we
predict they will.)
So where will the four seats come from?
We envision the Democrats flipping both Colorado and
Arizona, where John Hickenlooper and Mark Kelly, respectively, have long held
solid, upper single digit lead over their incumbent counterparts, Corey Gardner
and Martha McSally.
The next two are closer races, in Maine and North Carolina,
where polling has steadily favored Sarah Gideon by +4-5 points and Cal
Cunningham, respectively, by a lesser margin.
Cunningham has hung in despite a ghastly (and ghastly-timed) sexting
scandal, while his opponent, incumbent Republican Thom Tillis, had his own
issues battling COVID-19, which he contracted last month. We believe the Dems will take both of these,
sending Tillis and Susan Collins home, and thereby taking control of the
Senate.
There are six other races, five of which we consider
toss-ups: Iowa, Montana, South Carolina,
Kansas and Georgia’s regular election. The
other race is Georgia’s special election, which features a “Jungle Primary”
with many candidates from each party, which we are certain that will go to run-off
in early January – with perhaps the fate of the Senate hanging in the balance.
These five toss-ups are excruciating to pick, as the polls
show them as extremely close. We see the
GOP keeping Kansas, where there has not been much polling, and South Carolina –
in each race there appears to be a slight lean to Roger Marshall and Lindsay
Graham, so we have gone with them.
That leaves three incredibly tight races. The polls appear to be even, as in a dead
heat, in all three. In Montana, Democratic
Governor Steve Bullock has pressed GOP incumbent Steve Daines the whole
campaign, running slightly behind him.
In Iowa, GOP incumbent Jodi Ernst has fought back from a five-point
deficit to be dead even with challenger Theresa Greenfield. And Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff is now
running neck and neck with the GOP incumbent, David Purdue.
We ended up predicting the GOP would win in Iowa and
Montana, and that Georgia’s regular election would also end up in a
runoff. The two candidates are running
basically 49/49 in the polls, and there is a Libertarian candidate could will
siphon off just enough votes to preclude a majority winner. (If anyone hits 50%, we believe it will be
Ossoff, the Democrat.)
And so we will emerge from the November elections with the
Democrats holding a 50-48 margin in the Senate, winning control with a
Biden/Harris win, and with the opportunity to win a few more.
Note the full range of outcomes here. The Dems could come away with as many as 55
seats, and thus the opportunity to get to 57 in January.
Here are all the Senate races, generally sorted by most likely Democratic wins, down through the races in play, and ending with the seats the GOP is most likely to win.
The races the Dems are expected to win easily are show first,
followed by the close races, then the ones the Republicans are expected to
win easily |
BTRTN PREDICTION |
|||||||
Dem |
GOP |
|||||||
State |
Party (47 D/I, 53 R) |
Dem |
GOP |
Swing State Poll Avg. |
BTRTN Rating (F = Flip) |
Polls Close (ET) |
50 |
48 |
No race |
|
|
|
|
|
|
35 |
30 |
Rhode Is |
D |
Reed |
Waters |
|
D Solid |
8:00 |
1 |
|
Mass |
D |
Markey |
O'Connor |
|
D Solid |
8:00 |
1 |
|
N. Jersey |
D |
Booker |
Mehta |
|
D Solid |
8:00 |
1 |
|
Illinois |
D |
Durbin |
Curran |
|
D Solid |
8:00 |
1 |
|
Oregon |
D |
Merkeley |
Perkins |
|
D Solid |
10/11 |
1 |
|
Delaware |
D |
Coons |
tbd |
|
D Solid |
8:00 |
1 |
|
N. Mexico |
D |
Lujan |
Ronchetti |
|
D Solid |
9:00 |
1 |
|
Virginia |
D |
Warner |
Gade |
|
D Solid |
7:00 |
1 |
|
New Hamp |
D |
Shaheen |
tbd |
|
D Solid |
8:00 |
1 |
|
Minnesota |
D |
Smith |
Lewis |
|
D Solid |
9:00 |
1 |
|
Colorado |
R |
Hickenlooper |
Gardner |
D + 8 |
D Likely F |
9:00 |
1 |
|
Michigan |
D |
Peters |
James |
D + 7 |
D Likely |
8/9 |
1 |
|
Arizona |
R |
Kelly |
McSally |
D + 6 |
D Likely F |
9:00 |
1 |
|
Maine |
R |
Gideon |
Collins |
D + 5 |
D Lean F |
8:00 |
1 |
|
N. Carolina |
R |
Cunningham |
Tillis |
D + 3 |
D TU F |
7:30 |
1 |
|
Geor. (R) |
R |
Ossoff |
Perdue |
Even |
Runoff |
7:00 |
Runoff |
Runoff |
Iowa |
R |
Greenfield |
Ernst |
Even |
R TU |
10:00 |
|
1 |
Montana |
R |
Bullock |
Daines |
Even |
R TU |
10:00 |
|
1 |
S. Carolina |
R |
Harrison |
Graham |
R + 3 |
R TU |
7:00 |
|
1 |
Kansas |
R |
Bollier |
Marshall |
R + 4 |
R TU |
8/9 |
|
1 |
Alaska |
R |
Gross |
Sullivan |
R + 5 |
R Lean |
12/1 |
|
1 |
Geor. (S) |
R |
open primary; run off 1/5 |
<50% |
Runoff |
7:00 |
Runoff |
Runoff |
|
Mississippi |
R |
Espy |
Hyde-Smith |
R + 5 |
R Likely |
8:00 |
|
1 |
Kentucky |
R |
McGrath |
McConnell |
R + 9 |
R Likely |
6/7 |
|
1 |
Alabama |
D |
Jones |
Tuberville |
R + 11 |
R Likely F |
8:00 |
|
1 |
Texas |
R |
Hegar |
Cornyn |
|
R Solid |
8/9 |
|
1 |
Louisiana |
R |
open primary; run off 1/5 |
|
R Solid |
9:00 |
|
1 |
|
Arkansas |
R |
No Dem |
Cotton |
|
R Solid |
8:30 |
|
1 |
S. Dakota |
R |
Ahlers |
Rounds |
|
R Solid |
8/9 |
|
1 |
Tennessee |
R |
Bradshaw |
Hagerty |
|
R Solid |
8:00 |
|
1 |
Nebraska |
R |
Janicek |
Sasse |
|
R Solid |
9:00 |
|
1 |
Idaho |
R |
Jordan |
Risch |
|
R Solid |
10:00 |
|
1 |
W. Virginia |
R |
Swearengin |
Caputo |
|
R Solid |
7:30 |
|
1 |
Oklahoma |
R |
Broyles |
Inhofe |
|
R Solid |
8:00 |
|
1 |
Wyoming |
R |
Ben-David |
Lummus |
|
R Solid |
9:00 |
|
1 |
THE GOVERNORS
We’ll dispense with the Governors rather quickly, otherwise they will be buried down below the 435 House races. There are only 11 gubernatorial races this year, and only two of them are reasonably close. We expect GOP candidate Greg Gianforte to win in Montana, the only flip. In each of the other ten races we expect the incumbent party to defend successfully, including in Missouri, where GOP Governor Mike Parson has been pressed by challenger Nicole Galloway.
Here are all the Governor races.
The races the Dems are expected to win easily are listed first,
followed by the close races, then the ones the Republicans are expected to
win easily |
BTRTN PREDICTION |
|||||||
Dem |
GOP |
|||||||
State |
Inc. Party |
Dem |
GOP |
Swing Poll Avg. |
BTRTN Rating |
Polls Close (ET) |
23 |
27 |
Not running |
|
|
|
|
|
|
20 |
19 |
Delaware |
D |
Carney |
Murray |
|
D Solid |
8:00 |
1 |
|
Washington |
D |
Inslee |
Culp |
|
D Solid |
11:00 |
1 |
|
N. Carolina |
D |
Cooper |
Forest |
|
D Solid |
7:30 |
1 |
|
Montana |
D |
Cooney |
Gianforte |
R + 8 |
R Likely |
10:00 |
|
1 |
Missouri |
R |
Galloway |
Parson |
R + 5 |
R Lean |
8:00 |
|
1 |
New Hamp. |
R |
Feltes |
Sununu |
|
R Solid |
8:00 |
|
1 |
Indiana |
R |
Myers |
Holcomb |
|
R Solid |
6/7 |
|
1 |
North Dakota |
R |
Lenz |
Burgum |
|
R Solid |
8/9 |
|
1 |
Utah |
R |
Peterson |
Cox |
|
R Solid |
10:00 |
|
1 |
Vermont |
R |
Zuckerman |
Scott |
|
R Solid |
7:00 |
|
1 |
West Virginia |
R |
Solango |
Justice |
|
R Solid |
7:30 |
|
1 |
THE HOUSE
The key data point here is the “generic ballot”, in which pollsters ask voters whether they would be more likely to vote for a Democratic or Republican representative, without naming any candidates (hence, “generic”). While there are other variables in our BTRTN regression models that predicts how many seats will “flip” in the overall election, this is the most powerful one.
The generic ballot at this point shows the Democrats up by +8
points over the GOP. We predict that this
will translate into the Democrats picking up 18 seats, to get to a 251 seats,
leaving the GOP with a mere 184.
All the races are summarized below, with the 81 “in play”
races first, followed by the races the Democrats and then Republicans will
surely win.
The first 86 rows are the races "in play", ranked
roughly by likelihood of a Dem win; the races that follow are those that are not
in doubt ("Solid" D or R); they are sorted by party, then
state/district |
BTRTN PREDICTION |
|||||
Dem |
GOP |
|||||
State |
District |
Incum. (233 D- 202 R) |
BTRTN Rating |
Closest Races |
251 |
184 |
Maine |
2 |
D |
D Likely |
|
1 |
|
Illinois |
14 |
D |
D Likely |
|
1 |
|
Illinois |
17 |
D |
D Likely |
|
1 |
|
Michigan |
8 |
D |
D Likely |
|
1 |
|
Minnesota |
2 |
D |
D Likely |
|
1 |
|
Texas |
32 |
D |
D Likely |
|
1 |
|
Michigan |
11 |
D |
D Likely |
|
1 |
|
Nevada |
4 |
D |
D Likely |
|
1 |
|
New Hampshire |
1 |
D |
D Likely |
|
1 |
|
Pennsylvania |
8 |
D |
D Likely |
|
1 |
|
Pennsylvania |
17 |
D |
D Likely |
|
1 |
|
Texas |
7 |
D |
D Likely |
|
1 |
|
Wisconsin |
3 |
D |
D Likely |
|
1 |
|
Florida |
27 |
D |
D Likely |
|
1 |
|
Georgia |
6 |
D |
D Likely |
|
1 |
|
New Jersey |
3 |
D |
D Likely |
|
1 |
|
Oregon |
4 |
D |
D Likely |
|
1 |
|
Arizona |
1 |
D |
D Likely |
|
1 |
|
California |
39 |
D |
D Likely |
|
1 |
|
Nevada |
3 |
D |
D Likely |
|
1 |
|
New Jersey |
7 |
D |
D Lean |
|
1 |
|
Virginia |
2 |
D |
D Lean |
|
1 |
|
Iowa |
3 |
D |
D Lean |
|
1 |
|
Texas |
23 |
R |
D Lean |
|
1 |
|
California |
48 |
D |
D Lean |
|
1 |
|
Iowa |
1 |
D |
D Lean |
|
1 |
|
Iowa |
2 |
D |
D Lean |
|
1 |
|
S. Carolina |
1 |
D |
D Lean |
|
1 |
|
Georgia |
7 |
R |
D Lean |
|
1 |
|
Virginia |
7 |
D |
D Lean |
|
1 |
|
Florida |
26 |
D |
D Lean |
|
1 |
|
New Mexico |
2 |
D |
D Toss Up |
|
1 |
|
New York |
22 |
D |
D Toss Up |
|
1 |
|
Texas |
24 |
R |
D Toss Up |
|
1 |
|
Utah |
4 |
D |
D Toss Up |
|
1 |
|
Indiana |
5 |
R |
D Toss Up |
|
1 |
|
Nebraska |
2 |
R |
D Toss Up |
|
1 |
|
New Jersey |
2 |
R |
D Toss Up |
|
1 |
|
Ohio |
1 |
R |
D Toss Up |
|
1 |
|
Arizona |
6 |
R |
D Toss Up |
|
1 |
|
California |
21 |
D |
D Toss Up |
|
1 |
|
New York |
2 |
R |
D Toss Up |
|
1 |
|
New York |
11 |
D |
D Toss Up |
|
1 |
|
Oklahoma |
5 |
D |
D Toss Up |
|
1 |
|
Pennsylvania |
10 |
R |
D Toss Up |
|
1 |
|
Minnesota |
1 |
R |
D Toss Up |
|
1 |
|
Missouri |
2 |
R |
D Toss Up |
|
1 |
|
California |
25 |
R |
D Toss Up |
|
1 |
|
Michigan |
3 |
L |
D Toss Up |
|
1 |
|
Minnesota |
7 |
D |
D Toss Up |
|
1 |
|
Texas |
21 |
R |
D Toss Up |
|
1 |
|
Texas |
22 |
R |
D Toss Up |
|
1 |
|
New York |
24 |
R |
D Toss Up |
|
1 |
|
Illinois |
13 |
R |
R Toss Up |
|
|
1 |
Virginia |
5 |
R |
R Toss Up |
|
|
1 |
Arkansas |
2 |
R |
R Lean |
|
|
1 |
Colorado |
3 |
R |
R Lean |
|
|
1 |
Pennsylvania |
1 |
R |
R Lean |
|
|
1 |
North Carolina |
8 |
R |
R Lean |
|
|
1 |
Montana |
1 |
R |
R Lean |
|
|
1 |
New York |
1 |
R |
R Lean |
|
|
1 |
Texas |
10 |
R |
R Lean |
|
|
1 |
Alaska |
1 |
R |
R Lean |
|
|
1 |
Washington |
3 |
R |
R Lean |
|
|
1 |
Florida |
15 |
R |
R Likely |
|
|
1 |
Michigan |
6 |
R |
R Likely |
|
|
1 |
North Carolina |
11 |
R |
R Likely |
|
|
1 |
Texas |
3 |
R |
R Likely |
|
|
1 |
California |
50 |
R |
R Likely |
|
|
1 |
Florida |
16 |
R |
R Likely |
|
|
1 |
Florida |
18 |
R |
R Likely |
|
|
1 |
Ohio |
10 |
R |
R Likely |
|
|
1 |
Texas |
6 |
R |
R Likely |
|
|
1 |
Texas |
25 |
R |
R Likely |
|
|
1 |
Kansas |
2 |
R |
R Likely |
|
|
1 |
Kentucky |
6 |
R |
R Likely |
|
|
1 |
Ohio |
12 |
R |
R Likely |
|
|
1 |
Texas |
31 |
R |
R Likely |
|
|
1 |
California |
4 |
R |
R Likely |
|
|
1 |
S. Carolina |
2 |
R |
R Likely |
|
|
1 |
Texas |
2 |
R |
R Likely |
|
|
1 |
Alabama |
7 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
Arizona |
2 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
Arizona |
3 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
Arizona |
7 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
Arizona |
9 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
California |
2 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
California |
3 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
California |
5 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
California |
6 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
California |
7 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
California |
9 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
California |
11 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
California |
12 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
California |
13 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
California |
14 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
California |
15 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
California |
16 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
California |
17 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
California |
18 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
California |
19 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
California |
20 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
California |
24 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
California |
26 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
California |
27 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
California |
28 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
California |
29 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
California |
30 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
California |
31 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
California |
32 |
D |
D Solid |
|
1 |
|
California |
33 |
D |