Monday, June 4, 2012

2012 01 03

The results – not from Iowa itself, yet, but from this august group – are in.  And quite overwhelming for the Mittster….and for Obama.

1)  Who will win Iowa?

The majority for Romney, with a boomlet for Santorum:

Romney     9
Santorum   4
Paul            2
Gingrich     2
  1. Who will win New Hampshire?

Romney     15
Santorum    2  (clearly banking on some serious “mo”)
  1. Who will win the Republican nomination?

Romney     16
Santorum     1
  1. Who will win the general election?

Obama       14
Romney       2
Santorum     1

My own card went Santorum, Romney, Romney, Obama.  I gave serious thought to going for the brokered convention and, back to my original pick one year ago, Jeb Bush emerging!  But I am gutless!

Tom Cox said a good question might be, who drops out after the early primaries?  I think they all stay in until South Carolina, with the exception of Huntsman, who I think drops out after New Hampshire.  After South Carolina, I think Bachmann and Perry are gone, Perry after spending a boatload and still finishing 4th (after Santorum, Gingrich and Paul).  

I see Gingrich giving up after Super Tuesday, and then a three person grind between Romney, Santorum and Paul, with Romney emerging.

The key is how Santorum does in South Carolina.  If he wins Iowa (or even a strong, close 2nd or 3rd), he needs money and an organization fast.  If the conservative right rallies around him and dumps the others, that could come fast.

Comments welcome, and feel free to share them with everyone, and thanks for participating!

We’ll see!

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